Al-Tayeb Hamdi, a doctor and researcher in health policies and systems, confirmed that the global vaccination against (Covid-19) may slow down due to the rapid developments in India's situation and the spread of the Indian mutant for this virus.
In an analysis of the epidemiological situation in this Asian country, reported by MAP, Hamdi explained that India is the "laboratory of the world" in terms of manufacturing medicines and vaccines with 60 percent of global vaccines, indicating that India needs more vaccines to curb the epidemic, The global slowdown is likely to continue to vaccinate further.
He added that each mutant appears with higher infectious properties and can spread in all countries, highlighting that the more the virus spreads and doubles, the greater the risk of other, more dangerous mutations.
And the doctor added, "India records every day between 300 and 400 thousand new cases of" Covid-19 ", and more than 3 thousand deaths within 24 hours, indicating that these numbers may be less than the real data according to many experts and observers in the country. .
Regarding the reasons for this great development in this short time in India, Hamdi said that there are two clear reasons, the first is related to the emergence of an Indian mutant from "SARS Cove 2" known as "B 1.617", and the second reason is related to the large political, religious, social and cultural gatherings that it has witnessed. India in recent weeks without respecting individual and collective preventive measures.
"As for the mutant, experts agree that it will certainly be more contagious than the classic strain, but it is not known how widespread it will be or whether it will spread faster than the British mutant, which was rampant everywhere in India," he said.
He mentioned that this Indian mutant was first discovered in India (Maharashtra) in a man on October 5, 2020, which is referred to in the media as a double mutation, given that it carries a mutation seen on the California mutant, and another similar mutation to what was observed in the mutated strains in the South Africa and Brazil, pointing out that this does not mean that this mutant carries these two mutations only, but that it also carries 15 mutations, and that it is not the result of the merger of mutated strains that carry similar mutations.
With regard to the effectiveness of vaccines against the Indian mutant, acidic considers that by virtue of the nature of the mutations it carries, experts expect that this mutant partially defeats the immunity that the disease and vaccination give, adding that “this has not been proven yet, but a study concluded that it was found that the Indian vaccine“ Kovaxan ” Produced by “Bharat Beautique”; Less effective in this Indian mutant. ”
He stressed that even if India was a "world champion" in manufacturing vaccines, and even if this country had developed its own vaccines against Covid, it had only vaccinated less than 9 percent of its population.
Al-Tayyib believes that the spread of this pandemic cannot be controlled in such a densely populated country, and that it is characterized by social proximity and social and economic conditions that limit response measures, warning that the situation will continue for weeks despite the government’s intervention, as the number of deaths could double by four. Or more in the next four months, and experts say one million deaths.
As for the lessons learned, the researcher points out that as long as we do not achieve herd immunity, it is impossible to abandon the preventive measures, adding that "regional procedures and measures are in place to protect us from such situations."
Al-Tayyib concluded that a stable and under-control situation could turn into a catastrophic situation in less than three weeks, stressing the need to respect individual and collective preventive measures as they are considered a weapon to protect against disease, and that inaction leads directly to disasters, and to imposing more serious restrictions and damages.
From Alyaoum24
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