The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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Leading Off
● State Supreme Courts: With the U.S. Supreme Court's ever-increasing lurch to the right in recent decades, which culminated with its decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June, state supreme court elections like the ones taking place this fall have become more important than ever for a wide range of issues in American law and politics. Relying on state constitutions that can guarantee more protections for civil rights than their federal counterpart, state courts offer progressives one of their best and also last hopes for safeguarding abortion rights, free and fair elections, and a whole host of other legal protections.
Consequently, five states are home to heavily contested state supreme court elections this cycle, and Daily Kos Elections has previewed in greater detail each individual race on the ballot across these states. You can also find a complete list of all races in every state at Ballotpedia.
States choose their high court justices using a variety of methods that range on the one hand from merit-based assisted selection schemes designed to insulate judges from partisan pressure to full-blown partisan contests pitting candidates against each other just like any other race for Senate or governor on the other hand. Conservative interests have long spent millions seeking to influence the composition of state courts, effectively turning even nominally nonpartisan or retention elections into more partisan affairs, but progressives have begun more recently to also treat state supreme court elections as must-win contests requiring significant investment.
This month, Democrats are trying to prevent Republicans from flipping their tenuous 4-3 majorities in Illinois, Michigan, and North Carolina. Meanwhile, Republicans are trying to solidify their 4-3 edge in Ohio by replacing a retiring GOP moderate with a conservative hardliner while also fending off Democratic efforts to flip the court, and Republicans furthermore are trying to gain greater influence in Montana, where neither side has a clear grip on the high court.
Partisan control over these courts will have a clear impact on upcoming litigation over abortion rights and threats to democracy such as GOP gerrymandering, along with many other issues.
The Downballot
● At long last, the 2022 midterms are almost here! With the battle for the House front and center, we've brought back Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer to give us a window into the key races on a final pre-election episode of The Downballot. Singer discusses a wide range of contests that will offer insight into how the night is going, including top GOP pickup opportunities, second-tier Republican targets, and the seats where Democrats are on offense. And with many vote tallies likely to stretch on for some time, Singer also identifies several bellwether races in states that count quickly.
We'll be covering all of these races and many, many more on Tuesday night in our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections and on Twitter. The first polls close at 6 PM ET, so come join us! And of course, we'll recap the action on next week's edition of The Downballot. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern Time, and you can subscribe to The Downballot on Apple Podcasts.
Election Night
● Babka: It's that time of year, friends: The annual Daily Kos Elections prediction contest is back, and once again, the one-of-a-kind Green's Bakery is generously sponsoring us! Submit your guesses on a host of key midterm elections for a chance at one of four delectable gift bundles that include babka and a whole host of other assorted goodies. You have until 5 PM ET on Election Day to enter, so get to it. Babka—and bragging rights—are at stake!
● Poll Closing Times: Our poll closing times map is here again! Download your own so that you can know when to start checking returns in each state on election night. This is the map used by Nancy Pelosi and the Obama campaign!
You can download large-format maps keyed to each U.S. time zone below:
Eastern | Central | Mountain | Pacific | Alaska | Hawaii
We also have a version of the Eastern time zone map with each state's closing time individually labeled, to aid those who are color-blind, and printable blank templates for coloring in results for the Senate and the House.
Senate
● NH-Sen: Citizens for Sanity, a right-wing group that has been running some of the most racist and xenophobic ads of anyone this cycle, is spending a hefty $3.2 million for a late TV ad buy supporting Republican Don Bolduc despite the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund's decision to triage this race on Oct. 21. Democrats never treated this race like it was in the bag for Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, though, and Senate Majority PAC is dropping another $1.2 million to support the incumbent.
● Polls:
AZ-Sen: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 47, Blake Masters (R): 45 (Sept.: 46-40 Kelly)
CO-Sen: YouGov for the University of Colorado: Michael Bennet (D-inc): 56, Joe O'Dea (R): 42
FL-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R) for Fox 35: Marco Rubio (R-inc): 51, Val Demings (D): 45 (Sept: 46-44 Rubio)
NV-Sen: Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) for BUSR: Adam Laxalt (R): 48, Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc): 43, Barry Rubinson (IAP): 2, Neil Scott (L): 1
NV-Sen: BSP Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Univision: Cortez Masto (D-inc): 44, Laxalt (R): 42
OH-Sen: Cygnal (R): J.D. Vance (R): 49, Tim Ryan (D): 44 (Late Oct.: 48-43 Vance)
PA-Sen: Muhlenberg College for Morning Call: John Fetterman (D): 47, Mehmet Oz (R): 47 (Sept.: 49-44 Fetterman)
PA-Sen: Suffolk University for USA Today: Fetterman (D): 47, Oz (R): 45 (Sept.: 46-40 Fetterman)
PA-Sen: Susquehanna Polling and Research (R): Oz (R): 48, Fetterman (D): 47 (Aug.: 49-44 Fetterman)
WA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R) for American Greatness: Patty Murray (D-inc): 48, Tiffany Smiley (R): 46
WI-Sen: Clarity Campaign Labs (D) for Mandela Barnes: Mandela Barnes (D): 48, Ron Johnson (R-inc): 46 (Mid-Oct.: 48-47 Barnes)
WI-Sen: Wick Insights (R): Johnson (R-inc): 51, Barnes (D): 47
WI-Sen: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News: Johnson (R-inc): 48, Barnes (D): 45 (Sept.: 48-44 Johnson)
WI-Sen: Marquette Law School: Johnson (R-inc): 50, Barnes (D): 48 (Early Oct.: 49-47 Johnson)
WA-Sen: American Greatness is an election denier website.
Governors
● Polls:
AZ-Gov: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News: Kari Lake (R): 47, Katie Hobbs (D): 46 (Sept.: 44-43 Hobbs)
CO-Gov: YouGov for the University of Colorado: Jared Polis (D-inc): 57, Heidi Ganahl (R): 41
FL-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (R) for Fox 35: Ron DeSantis (R-inc): 53, Charlie Crist (D): 43 (Sept: 50-45 DeSantis)
GA-Gov: Seven Letter Insight (R): Brian Kemp (R-inc): 49, Stacey Abrams (D): 44, Shane Hazel (L): 4
MI-Gov: Wick Insights (R): Gretchen Whitmer (D-inc): 49, Tudor Dixon (R): 47 (Mid-Oct.: 48-47 Dixon)
MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP: Tim Walz (D-inc): 51, Scott Jensen (R): 43 (Early Oct.: 50-40 Walz)
NV-Gov: Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) for BUSR: Joe Lombardo (R): 45, Steve Sisolak (D-inc): 43, Brandon Davis (L): 2, Ed Bridges (AIP): 2
NV-Gov: BSP Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Univision: Sisolak (D-inc): 46, Lombardo (R): 45
PA-Gov: Muhlenberg College for Morning Call: Josh Shapiro (D): 54, Doug Mastriano (R): 40 (Sept.: 53-42 Shapiro)
PA-Gov: Suffolk University for USA Today: Shapiro (D): 52, Mastriano (R): 40 (Sept.: 48-37 Shapiro)
WI-Gov: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News: Tim Michels (R): 47, Tony Evers (D-inc): 46 (Sept.: 47-47 tie)
WI-Gov: Wick Insights (R): Michels (R): 48, Evers (D-inc): 47
WI-Gov: Marquette Law School: Evers (D-inc): 48, Michels (R): 48, Beglinger (I): 2 (Early Oct. 47-44 Evers)
House
● IL-06, NY-04: The Congressional Leadership Fund is making a last minute push to expand the playing field for the House by spending $1.8 million to defeat Democratic Rep. Sean Casten in Illinois' 6th District, a suburban Chicago area seat that would have backed Joe Biden 55-44, and $1.5 million against Democrat Laura Gillen in New York's 4th District, a suburban Long Island district that Biden would have carried 57-42. CLF's entry comes immediately after House Majority PAC earlier this week began airing TV ads to defend both seats, with Politico newly reporting that HMP put $650,000 toward supporting Casten and $1.2 million toward electing Gillen.
● ME-02: FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich relays that a spokesperson for Maine's secretary of state indicated that officials "anticipate that any ranked-choice voting tabulation would happen midweek in the week following Election Day." Consequently, we may not know the winner for days in the hotly contested 2nd District, where Democratic Rep. Jared Golden faces a rematch of 2018 against former GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin and independent Tiffany Bond, since there's a significant chance that Bond will prevent either Golden or Poliquin from winning the outright majority needed to avoid the ranked-choice process from playing out just as she did in 2018.
● Polls:
CA-49: SurveyUSA for KGTV and the San Diego Union-Tribune: Mike Levin (D-inc): 49, Brian Maryott (R): 43
PA-12: DCCC Targeting and Analytics: Summer Lee (D): 54, Mike Doyle (R): 40
CA-49: This is the first survey we've seen here all cycle in a seat that would have backed Joe Biden 55-43 and didn't change much in redistricting.
PA-12: The DCCC's poll, which is also the first publicly available survey of this race this cycle, additionally has Democrat John Fetterman ahead 58-38 for Senate in a seat that Biden would have won by a similar 59-39 spread.
Attorneys General and Secretaries of State
● Polls:
CO-SoS: YouGov for the University of Colorado: Jena Griswold (D-inc): 54, Pam Anderson (R): 43
MN-AG: SurveyUSA for KSTP: Jim Schultz (R): 49, Keith Ellison (D-inc): 42 (Early Oct.: 45-43 Ellison)
MN-SoS: SurveyUSA for KSTP: Steve Simon (D-inc): 47, Kim Crockett (R): 41 (Early Oct.: 42-40 Simon)
NM-SoS: Research and Polling for the Albuquerque Journal: Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D-inc): 50, Audrey Trujillo (R): 35
NV-AG: Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) for BUSR: Aaron Ford (D-inc): 44, Sigal Chattah (R): 41, John Kennedy (L): 9
MN-AG: SurveyUSA's poll appears to be Schultz's biggest lead all cycle and the first one in months where he has led Ellison at all. The same sample has Democratic Gov. Tim Walz winning re-election 51-43.
Daily Kos Elections November 03, 2022 at 01:30PM From Daily Kos
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