Supporters of Donald Trump who are most likely to reconsider their support if he is convicted in his Manhattan hush money trial have very Joe Biden-friendly profiles, according to a CNN poll on Americans’ views of the criminal proceedings.
While three-quarters of current Trump supporters said a criminal conviction would be immaterial to them, 24% said they "might reconsider" their support. In other words, of all the voters supporting Trump in the survey, 76% were MAGA diehards, while roughly a quarter were more malleable.
So let's take a look at a profile of these squishier Trump supporters, according to the survey:
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They are younger: 64% who said they might reconsider were under 50.
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They are less likely to be white: 49% who said a conviction could matter were people of color, while just 17% of whites said the same.
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63% said Biden legitimately won 2020.
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20% said they backed Biden in 2020.
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49% are independents.
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50% are ideological moderates.
"These are the exact voters who propelled Trump to his very narrow lead in the polling average. Younger voters, independents, Black and Latino voters are groups Trump struggled with in 2020 but is doing better with now,” points out Dan Pfeiffer, White House communications director for the Obama administration.
The 2024 presidential race is effectively even now, with the 538 aggregate giving Trump just a 1-point advantage. Both camps need to persuade more voters into their corners to cement a win, but Biden even more so given Republicans' built-in advantage in the electoral college. And a candidate always wants the pool of voters they need to woo to be predisposed to supporting them in the first place.
For Biden, that means he wants those squishy Trump supporters to generally be younger, voters of color, people who view themselves as moderates, people who believe he won 2020 legitimately, and people who voted for him last time. That includes everyone from the poll who could be persuaded to vote for Biden if Trump is convicted.
Perhaps more importantly, CNN may have located the exact profile of the Trump supporters who have enough doubts about him to admit as much to a pollster. That alone suggests that they could be open to other Democratic arguments against Trump, so the Biden campaign could begin its persuasion efforts even before a verdict comes down.
Campaign Action Kerry Eleveld April 30, 2024 at 12:00AM From Daily Kos
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