A surge of support from Latino voters helped Donald Trump to win last year’s election, but new data finds that those same voters are now souring on his presidency amid his heavy-handed immigration crackdown.
A new poll from the Democratic group Equis Research, conducted in conjunction with Data for Progress, shows deep cracks in the so-called multiracial coalition the GOP hoped to build. And if the trend holds, Trump won’t just be bleeding support—he’ll be dragging down his party with him.
Among Latino voters who backed former President Joe Biden in 2020 but flipped to Trump in 2024, a staggering 64% now say Trump has gone too far with deportations and is targeting immigrants who strengthen the U.S. That’s in line with the share of overall Latino voters (66%) who think that. And only 29% of Latino voters overall agree with the idea that the pain inflicted by deportations is a “price to pay to ensure our safety.”
Worse for Trump, more than a third (36%) of Latino voters who backed him last year say he’s gone too far. And 15% of Latino Trump voters now flat-out disapprove of the job he’s doing as president. For comparison, only 4% of all Trump 2024 voters disapproved of his job performance in the most recent Civiqs poll for Daily Kos.
The Equis Research/Data for Progress poll was first reported by The Bulwark on Friday.
This sharp backlash shouldn’t be surprising. Trump and his Cabinet have shredded due process, bulldozed legal boundaries, and made examples of immigrants like Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the Maryland father who was wrongly deported to El Salvador. Trump’s immigration agenda isn’t just aggressive—it’s punitive, personal, and politically toxic.
Equis’ data goes deeper as well. For instance, 73% of Latino voters say mass deportations will “tear families apart, many of whom have been in the U.S. for a long time.” Another 71% say the crackdown unfairly targets “undocumented immigrants who are law-abiding members of society, work hard, and pay taxes.” Yes, these voters still want a secure border—but they’re not buying Trump’s scorched-earth version of it.
In fact, many of Trump’s newer voters assumed he’d narrowly focus on deporting criminals and recent border-crossers, Equis found. What the voters say they didn’t sign up for was a sweeping war on immigrant families and communities. That disconnect is now exploding in the numbers.
The clearest red flag is how many young Latino men have abandoned Trump. Among those who responded to the poll, Latino men ages 18 to 34 backed Trump by 11 percentage points in 2024—and now his approval rating with this bloc is 11 points underwater. His net approval rating on the economy with this group is at -17 points, and on immigration, it’s down to -12 points. These young men were supposed to be the foundation of Trump’s next-generation GOP. Instead, they’re already bailing.
While the 2026 midterm elections are a ways off, and 2028 is even further away, these are the kinds of shifts that shape political futures.
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis, told The Bulwark that while this isn’t a total collapse in Latino support for Trump, it’s a clear sign of mounting dissatisfaction. Immigration is “playing an important supporting role,” he said, but “the economy is the lead actor.” (Trump’s net approval on the economy among Latino voters is -26 points, according to the poll.)
So no, it’s not just about immigration. It’s the economy, stupid—and Latinos aren’t impressed with Trump’s performance on either front.
This, of course, raises the obvious question: Does this open the door for Democrats? Possibly. But it’s not automatic.
Among Latinos who disapprove of Trump’s immigration policy, 25% don’t support either party on the issue. This and other data suggest that Democrats have a small window—but only if they show up with something real.
That means not just opposing Trump’s cruelty but also offering a concrete vision: real border security, smart and compassionate immigration reform, and a strong commitment to keeping families together. Odio put it plainly: Latino voters “don’t want chaos in our communities or families ripped apart because some ICE agent needed to meet their quotas.”
Some Democrats are beginning to meet the moment. For instance, members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus recently traveled to Mexico to meet the family of an 11-year-old U.S. citizen who was deported with her parents despite recovering from a brain tumor.
Trump might try to claw back support with performative executive orders and headline-grabbing stunts. But fewer Latino voters are falling for the show. They’ve seen what he does with power—and they’ve had enough.
Campaign Action Alex Samuels May 16, 2025 at 11:30PM From Daily Kos
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