Montana Republican Ryan Zinke on Monday announced he will not seek a fourth term in the U.S. House, a surprise decision that gives Democrats a prime pickup opportunity in the 2026 midterm elections
Zinke said his retirement is due to "multiple surgeries" he's undergone since he returned to office, as well as the fact that he will need to undertake more, requiring "considerable" recovery time.
"My judgement and experience tell me is it better for Montana and America to have full-time representation in Congress than run the risk of uncertain absence and missed votes," Zinke said.
Zinke’s seat was already being targeted by Democrats in the midterms. Montana’s 1st District was on a list of 44 the party plans to spend resources to try to flip in November as they seek to retake the House majority.
Democrats had been hammering Zinke on his support of President Donald Trump's destructive tariffs, which have hurt farmers and ranchers in the state.
“Republicans agree: Ryan Zinke’s repeated votes to support reckless, price-spiking tariffs prove to Montanans that Zinke is to blame for their rising costs," the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said in a statement on Thursday, pointing to a New York Times article in which GOP consultants expressed fears that congressional Republicans' refusal to rein in Trump's tariffs would hurt them in November.
Trump, for his part, carried Montana's 1st District by about 12 percentage points in 2024, according to data from The Downballot. However, in 2020, Trump won the seat by just 7 points. In a blue wave, it's seats like this that could fall, especially when there is no incumbent.
Indeed, since Trump reentered the White House, Democrats have been overperforming their 2024 margins by an average of 13 points, according to The Downballot’s data. That’s the type of environment in which Democrats could flip the 1st District.
The Cook Political Report, a political handicapping outlet, rates the race a "Likely Republican" contest. However, the outlet said in 2025 that the district is a "potentially enticing pickup opportunity for Democrats" due to the seat's geographic makeup. The district includes Montana's liberal bastions of Missoula and Bozeman, as well as two large Native American reservations.
As for the race, a handful Democratic candidates had announced bids: Sam Forstag, a union leader and wildfire fighter; Ryan Busse, the 2024 Democratic nominee for governor; and Matt Rains, a veteran and farm union head.
A good tell about how nervous Republicans are about their outlook in November will be the quality of GOP candidates that announce bids to replace Zinke. If top-tier Republicans opt out of the race, it’s a tell they want to keep their powder dry for an election cycle more favorable to their party.
Ultimately, Zinke is the 32nd House Republican to either announce their retirement or decision to run for another office. That large number suggests GOP lawmakers know they will be in the minority when the next Congress is sworn in.
In fact, Republicans' hold on the majority is so tenuous that House Speaker Mike Johnson is forcing a dying GOP lawmaker to stick around rather than resign to spend his final days with his family.
Zinke may have seen the writing on the wall and decided that retiring was the best course of action.
Emily Singer March 3, 2026 at 12:00AM From Daily Kos
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