Perry Bacon Jr/Washington Post:
Biden shouldn’t be as unpopular as Trump — but he is
Biden has a 4 percent approval rating among Republicans. That’s much worse than Clinton (20 percent) and Obama (16 percent) but not unlike Trump’s 8 percent among Democrats.
What’s harder to understand is why Biden is so unpopular. There are some obvious reasons that he is not loved. Inflation is unusually high. Negative partisanship has grown substantially since Clinton’s tenure — it’s not clear any president could have 20 percent approval from people in the opposite party. The president’s centrist, bipartisan approach likely ensures a bloc of younger and more progressive Democrats won’t be thrilled with him. Voters in Britain, Canada, France and numerous other countries are also dissatisfied with their leaders, according to polls, so perhaps it’s almost impossible to be a popular politician in 2023.
This is a thoughtful piece that explores the topic.
Trump’s GOP support appears to soften post-indictment, but he holds lead in primary field
Though Trump continues to lead the GOP field by a wide margin in the race for the Republican Party’s nomination for president, the poll suggests that his support has declined, as have positive views of him among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Nearly a quarter now say they would not consider backing his candidacy under any circumstances. The survey also finds that those GOP-aligned voters not currently backing his 2024 bid have different views on his indictment and behavior than those in his corner
Still, there’s little sign that Republican-aligned voters who aren’t backing Trump are consolidating behind any one of his rivals. Nor are they unified around wanting Trump out of the race entirely, or in feeling that his primary opponents ought to call him out for his alleged actions in this case.
It’s simply too early to know how much more softening there will be, but my working theory remains that trump is less popular than he was and he doesn’t have the juice he used to. That means marginal supporters will fall off over the indictments (and for being seen as a loser) as the weeks go on. And the bigger impact will be in November 2024, not the GOP primary.
Judge Strikes Down Arkansas Law Banning Gender Transition Care for Minors
The case had been closely watched as an important test of whether bans on transition care for minors, enacted by more than a dozen states, could withstand challenges.
The case had been closely watched as an important test of whether bans on transition care for minors, which have since been enacted by 19 other states, could withstand legal challenges being brought by activists and civil liberties groups. It is the first ruling to broadly block such a ban for an entire state, though judges have intervened to temporarily delay similar laws from going into effect.
Jennifer Rubin/Washington Post:
Trump isn’t the GOP’s biggest problem. Abortion is.
Many Republican candidates (for Congress, state legislatures and the 2024 presidential nomination) have vigorously pushed for a nationwide ban on abortion. That’s a dead-bang loser for the party. According to a new USA Today-Suffolk University poll, “Americans overwhelmingly oppose the next goal of many anti-abortion activists, to enact a federal law banning abortion nationwide. By 80%-14%, those surveyed opposed that idea, including 65% of Republicans and 83% of independents.”
Charlie Sykes/The Bulwark:
The Call is Coming from Inside the House
The new anti-Trumpers
As I’ve warned you before, the new anti-Trump coalition will require a healthy gag reflex because it could include many of Trump’s worst enablers. But we don’t always get to pick the army we go to war with, do we?
In case you missed Bill Barr’s takedown of DJT on Sunday, the former AG has followed up in the Free Press with a scorching critique of the Trumpian defenses, rationalizations, suck-ups, and spin surrounding the indictment.
…[Trump is a deeply flawed, incorrigible man who frequently brings calamity on himself and the country through his dishonesty and self-destructive recklessness. Even his supporters, who can’t help but acknowledge that he is own worst enemy, know it.
For the sake of the country, our party, and a basic respect for the truth, it is time that Republicans come to grips with the hard truths about President Trump’s conduct and its implications. Chief among them: Trump’s indictment is not the result of unfair government persecution. This is a situation entirely of his own making. The effort to present Trump as a victim in the Mar-a-Lago document affair is cynical political propaganda.
No, argues Barr, Trump is not a victim. The charges are serious, and the case is strong. “All the razzle-dazzle about Trump’s supposed rights under the Presidential Records Act is a sideshow,” Barr writes. “At its core, this is an obstruction case.”
Jennifer Taub/Washington Monthy:
Garland’s Inaction on January 6 Gave Trump Breathing Room
A new Washington Post report examines why more than fifteen months elapsed before the Justice Department began investigating Donald Trump’s role in the January 6 insurrection.According to the Post, Garland’s delay stemmed from factors including “wariness about appearing partisan, institutional caution, and clashes over how much evidence was sufficient to investigate the actions of Trump and those around him.” Really? We all knew on January 6 that Trump had encouraged the insurrectionists, taking his sweet time before asking them to stand down. We also learned that leading up to that day, Trump had badgered GOP officials, including the vice president. Garland could have appointed a special counsel within moments of his confirmation. After all, the former president had been impeached in the House for a second time over the coup attempt, with some Senate Republicans finally breaking ranks and voting to convict.
Those willing to acknowledge Garland’s lackadaisical pace lay most of the responsibility at the feet of Michael R. Sherwin, then-acting U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia. The Post notes, “Sherwin, senior Justice Department officials, and Paul Abbate, the top deputy to FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, quashed a plan by prosecutors in the U.S. attorney’s office to directly investigate Trump associates for any links to the riot, deeming it premature, according to five individuals familiar with the decision. Instead, they insisted on a methodical approach — focusing first on rioters and going up the ladder.”
jamil Smith/Los Angeles Times:
A new way of looking at Juneteenth
It’s best to understand precisely what are we celebrating: an end to the unpaid, torturous toiling of Black people to build white wealth. I don’t begrudge anyone enjoying a day off and a cookout, but it’s hard not to see the holiday as an underused opportunity to teach and learn about the history of Black labor.
For many of us, that starts within our own families, with tales of our forebears who migrated north, east and west after emancipation. “Enslaved people passed down the stories of who they were to their children,” said historian Blair L.M. Kelley, author of the new book “Black Folk: The Roots of the Black Working Class.” “They made sure that they understood their history. So, that physical memory that we have, there’s a desire amongst both the highly educated and the everyday person to pass that history down.”
And finally a reminder from Lakshya Jain/Spit Ticket (newsletter):
How Much Does Early Presidential Polling Matter?
But the rush to explain and analyze the early numbers obscures an important reality: early head-to-head polling isn’t useful for predicting elections. The graph below visually represents how irrelevant polls taken today are: at this point in time, the average polling error is on the order of 8 percentage points.
It’s too early to pay attention.
Greg Dworkin June 21, 2023 at 12:00PM From Daily Kos
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