Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.
It was a bombshell statement from Attorney General Pam Bondi. In early May, she told reporters the FBI was reviewing “tens of thousands of videos” of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein “with children or child porn.”
The comment ignited a firestorm. For years, Trump-aligned conspiracy theorists believed he held the key to exposing Epstein’s alleged sex-trafficking network and long-rumored “client list,” which Trump promised to release if he won last year’s election. And Bondi’s remarks raised expectations that damning new evidence was imminent.
But now she is walking it all back. The Justice Department, which she leads, released a memo saying there was no client list, which she publicly claimed in February to have “sitting on my desk right now to review.” And just as suddenly, Trump told his supporters to stop talking about Epstein altogether, calling the issue “a hoax.” That abrupt pivot stunned many MAGA loyalists who had built entire narratives around Trump being the one to blow the Epstein case wide open.
Now Trump is trying to recalibrate. While he’s not recommending a special prosecutor in the Epstein case, he reluctantly encouraged Bondi on Wednesday to release any “credible” information regarding it. It’s unclear whether that olive branch will satisfy his base or pour fuel on the fire, though. Even some GOP lawmakers, like House Speaker Mike Johnson, are signaling they want more transparency.
And new polling indicates the public feels the same. A CNN/SSRS survey, conducted July 10-13, finds that only 3% of Americans are satisfied with the information released about the Epstein case. Fifty percent are dissatisfied, including 56% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans.
The dissatisfaction is strongest at the ideological extremes. The poll shows that very conservative Republicans and more liberal Democrats are the most unhappy with the lack of information. Among Republicans, 48% of the very conservative group are dissatisfied, compared with 40% of those who are only somewhat conservative. On the Democratic side, 70% of liberals want more information, compared with 52% of moderates and conservative Democrats.
A separate survey by The Economist/YouGov, conducted July 11-14, finds similar frustrations. Nearly 4 in 5 Americans want the government to release all Epstein-related documents, including 85% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans.
Quinnipiac University’s new poll shows that just 17% of voters approve of how the Trump administration is handling the Epstein files, while 63% disapprove. And Republicans are nearly split on the issue.
This narrative isn’t just background noise, though. It shows a deeper breakdown in how Americans are viewing the Epstein scandal. Both Republicans and Democrats are upset, but the political fallout may run deeper on the right. Trump told his base to move on. Some are listening—but others aren’t.
YouGov data reveals that Republicans’ confidence in the Epstein investigation has plummeted since January—a surprising change given that Trump’s administration now oversees it. In early January, 36% of Republicans believed that “all people connected with Jeffrey Epstein who are alleged to have committed sex crimes will be thoroughly investigated,” per the poll’s wording. But as of early July, that number is now just 19%.
“Top Trump officials have spent years promoting baseless conspiracy theories about Epstein, and now that they’re in charge, the pressure is on for them to produce,” said Matthew Dallek, a history professor at George Washington University who focuses on the conservative movement. “Trump was supposed to come in and expose [Epstein], and I think the bill is coming due for that savior narrative. They have to deliver on that promise.”
YouGov’s data also shows that Democrats’ confidence in the investigation dropped from 41% in January to 16% in July. But Dallek believes Democratic frustration may be more political than principled. If Democratic voters want more information, it’s often because they suspect Trump could be implicated. A July 9 poll from YouGov finds that 69% of Democrats believe Trump was involved in Epstein’s alleged crimes. Just 7% of Republicans hold the same view.
This partisan gap gives Democrats a strategic opportunity.
“The fact that Democrats are making an issue of it could suggest they want to fan the flames and exploit the rift within MAGA, so it’s pretty opportunistic,” Dallek said. “But just because it’s shameless doesn’t mean it will fail. It could be shameless and effective at the same time.”
This appears to be happening. Axios recently reported that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries surprised some colleagues by fully supporting efforts to exploit GOP divisions over Epstein. And Democrats have proposed measures to force the DOJ to release documents, but Republicans have blocked them.
There has long been high public interest in the case. In July 2019, after Epstein’s arrest on charges of child sex trafficking but before his death, The Economist/YouGov found that 37% of adults had heard “a lot” about the case.
In January 2024, YouGov found that 37% believed Epstein was murdered, compared with 20% who thought he died by suicide, which is Epstein’s official cause of death. And these numbers have shifted only slightly since then: As of this month, 39% think Epstein was murdered, and 20% believe he took his own life.
While many issues could hurt Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections, it’s unclear whether Epstein will be one. Dallek warned that even if some MAGA voters become disillusioned with Trump’s failure to “deliver” on Epstein, it might not outweigh concerns over inflation or immigration.
“People have been saying Trump would lose his base or key supporters for 10 years,” Dallek said. “I don’t think Epstein will be the top issue on Election Day, but it could have an effect.”
Either way, the Epstein saga reveals a deeper problem for Trump: His base expected a reckoning, but instead, they’re getting scraps.
If Trump can’t—or won’t—follow through, even loyal supporters might start to tune out. For a movement nominally built on exposing the corrupt elite, failing to deliver on the biggest conspiracy could be the ultimate backfire.
Any updates?
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Trump is threatening to revoke U.S. citizenship from political enemies, including actor Rosie O’Donnell, a longtime Trump critic who was born in New York. But voters aren’t on board. A new YouGov poll finds that 72% of U.S. adults—including 46% of Republicans—don’t think presidents should have the power to strip citizenship from people born here.
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A new Echelon Insights poll confirms what many suspected about Musk’s so-called America Party: It’s dead on arrival. When asked who they’d support in a hypothetical congressional race, likely voters overwhelmingly favored the two major parties—45% for Democrats, 41% for Republicans. Just 5% said they’d vote for a candidate from Musk’s political party. Worse, 39% said they wouldn’t consider supporting an America Party candidate, while only 32% said they would.
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Most Americans don’t support dismantling the Department of Education, despite efforts from the Trump administration to do just that. Their push gained momentum this week after the Supreme Court ruled the president can proceed with firing nearly 1,400 department officials. But 57% of Americans say eliminating the agency would hurt public schools in their community, while 7% think it would have no impact, according to YouGov. Somehow, though, 31% of Republicans say shutting it down would help their local schools “a lot.” Go figure.
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Trump’s aggressive deportation push isn’t just floundering—it’s costing him support. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows his approval rating on immigration has dropped to 41%, the lowest since he took office in January. Just 28% of Americans agree that “immigration arrests at places of work are good for the country,” while 54% disagree. Even Republicans are split: 56% support workplace raids, 24% oppose them, and 20% are unsure.
- We already knew many of Trump’s policies were unpopular—but new data shows just how much pain those policies are causing. Forty-nine percent of Americans say Trump’s policies have hurt them, according to a new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Just 27% say the policies have helped, while another 22% report no impact. Worse for Trump, his approval numbers across most major issues remain underwater, with his best-performing issue—immigration—topping out at just 43% approval. He scores lowest on health care, where just 34% approve of his handling of that issue. That dismal score is likely tied to his sweeping economic law, which slashes Medicaid to help fund tax cuts for the wealthy—a move that’s left many Americans worse off.
Vibe check
As of Friday at 12:03 PM ET, 43.9% of the public approved of Trump, while 52.6% disapproved, for a net approval rating of -8.7 points, according to election analyst Nate Silver’s polling average.
About two weeks earlier, Trump’s approval stood slightly higher, at 44.9%, with 51.4% disapproving.
Andrew Mangan contributed research.
Alex Samuels July 21, 2025 at 12:00AM From Daily Kos
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